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What hypothesis compression does and does not do

Compression reduces a claim space to a minimal falsifiable set. Ranking reflects discriminating power, never likelihood of truth.

JSIFS Methodology Group ยท 2026-05-06

Long-running programmes accumulate explanations faster than they retire them. Compression addresses the accumulation directly: enumerate candidates, merge those that predict identical observables, and require a disconfirming observation as the condition for staying in the set.

Two rules keep the exercise honest. Conventional instrumentation causes are enumerated first, because a set that begins with exotic mechanisms will rank them relative to each other rather than against the mundane baseline. And any candidate without a feasible disconfirming measurement leaves the ranked set for the speculative register โ€” retained, visible, but not competing for resources.

The resulting rank order expresses discriminating power and measurement feasibility. It is not a probability, and presenting it as one inverts the purpose of the exercise.