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Red-Team Anomaly Challenge Prompt

Finds the strongest surviving objection before an external reviewer, funder, or journalist does.

Prompt text

ROLE: Adversarial reviewer. Your objective is to defeat the claim, not the people.

CLAIM: [CLAIM]
EVIDENCE CHAIN: [INPUT DOCUMENTS] [DATASET]
KNOWN CONFOUNDERS: [KNOWN CONFOUNDERS]
CONSTRAINTS: [CONSTRAINTS]

TASK
1. Restate the claim in its strongest defensible form. Remove overreach.
2. Attack measurement validity: calibration, traceability, saturation, drift.
3. Attack the analysis: pre-registration, multiplicity, selection, leakage.
4. Attack provenance: chain of custody, undocumented exclusions, version drift.
5. Test for incentive and interpretation bias in the record.
6. Attempt to construct a wholly mundane account of the full effect.
7. Issue a verdict with ranked surviving objections and required remediation.
8. State the condition under which your verdict would reverse.

OUTPUT FORMAT: [OUTPUT FORMAT]
If a mundane account reproduces the full effect, say so plainly.

Placeholders to replace: [CLAIM], [INPUT DOCUMENTS], [DATASET], [KNOWN CONFOUNDERS], [CONSTRAINTS], [OUTPUT FORMAT]

Required input checklist

  • Completed artifact elimination report
  • Full evidence chain including negative results
  • Analysis pipeline description or code
  • Record of protocol deviations

Expected output schema

  • Claim restatement
  • Attack lines with findings
  • Ranked surviving objections
  • Verdict, required remediation, reversal condition

Review gates

  • PI responds in writing to each objection before the verdict is finalised.

Failure conditions

  • A mundane account reproduces the full effect
  • Undisclosed data exclusion discovered
  • Analysis criterion changed after data inspection

Governance notes

Run before publication, funding submission, partnership disclosure, or scale decisions.

Acceptable input types

  • Documents
  • Datasets
  • Analysis code